Calibration, Not Certainty
Rommel CorralPublished on: 10/09/2026
The forecasters who beat the CIA weren't more certain than the analysts -- they were better calibrated. Certainty was never the actual requirement.
Rommel Corral
Telling Isn't the Problem, Being Noticed Is
Rommel CorralPublished on: 09/25/2026
Announcing a goal to people who merely notice it kills the drive to do it. Recruiting real help doesn't -- the difference isn't whether you tell people.
Naming the Loop
Rommel CorralPublished on: 09/08/2026
The first move on any loop is the cheapest: say what it is, precisely. Why naming a pattern loosens its grip (affect labeling), and the three properties of a name that actually fires fast enough to compete.
The Witness
Rommel CorralPublished on: 08/11/2026
Durable change needs someone who'll remember -- the one thing a book, an app, or a private resolution structurally cannot be. Memory plus weight, and why the research pins the effect on being witnessed, not on motivation.